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Again, we don’t know for sure whether any of this is happening. That may be the scariest part. As long as Polymarket lets anyone bet on war anonymously, we may never know. Last Saturday, the day of the initial Iran attack, Polymarket processed a record $478 million in bets, according to one analysis. All the while, Polymarket continues to wedge itself into the mainstream. Substack recently struck a partnership with Polymarket to incorporate the platform’s forecasts into its newsletters. (“Journalism is better when it’s backed by live markets,” Polymarket posted on X in announcing the deal.) All of this makes the site even more valuable as an intelligence asset, and even more destructive for the rest of us. Polymarket keeps launching more war markets: Will the U.S. strike Iraq? Will Israel strike Beirut? Will Iran strike Cyprus? Somewhere out there, someone likely already knows the answers.
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This gap is even more visible in the rapidly rising longevity economy, which Swiss bank UBS predicted to be worth $8 trillion by 2030. Healthspan companies operate in a domain where the consequences of being wrong are real, where biological systems resist simplification and where translation from insight to intervention is the work. In this context, validation is not a logo or a prize, but a growing body of evidence that compounds over time.uu
Matt Uyttendaele, Microsoft